In an excellent blog post, Caspar van Rijnbach presents the scenario thinking approach: http://www.innovationmanagement.se/2012/02/01/how-scenario-planning-can-help-you-innovate-better/.
His closing remarks:
So what about you and your company, are you prepared for different scenarios? Does your innovation portfolio and pipeline reflect this?
Where scenario thinking is build into the innovation portfolio management process, it becomes an organizational competence. Developing new scenarios should not be incidental and just a creative exercise: systematically understanding their impact across the portfolio, and tracking them over time for learning builds the innovative organization.